MLB System: How to Find Your Winning Bet

STEP 1: Find Bookies Biggest Favorite

Go to your Preferred Betting Agency and look at the particular days MLB Lines. The idea is to focus all attention on the Bookies Biggest Favorite for the day. The Bookies Biggest Favorite for the day is the team with the highest NEGATIVE (-)

  1. Suppose, for June 25th there are 4 games to choose from.
  2. The American League Game has the Bookies Biggest Favorite being Los Angeles Angels at the NEGATIVE MONEY LINE ODDS of -290.
  3. This is how we identify what game to bet on. It’s that simple.

NOTES: The great thing about this system is that the betting agencies do all of the hard work for you. They analyze the teams and what the true market should, which is great because that means you don’t have to do all the analysis yourself.

IMPORTANT: Only choose the Bookies Biggest Favorite of each day, and nothing else. If you start betting on the Bookies Second Biggest Favorite of the day as well, your ROI’s will be hurt and it’s against the rules of this system.

STEP 2: Bet the Runline

Now that we’ve established the Bookies Biggest Favorite at Money Odds, we look to another betting option for that game: The Runline Odds as this is what we’ll actually be betting on.

Why Bet On Runline Odds?

  • The Runline Odds will give you much better odds than just betting on the Money Line Odds (much closer to evens).
  • With the Runline Odds, the team must win by 2 runs or more to win instead of just winning by 1 run.

NOTE: Fluctuations in the market can occur. So sticking with a routine that allows the best known odds at the time of placing the bet is advisable.

According to website, people can catch wind of injuries or late changes to line-ups very late. So I recommend you leave your selections until 30 minutes before the first game of the day. But once a selection is made, forget about market movements because that’s out of your control.

One thing I can suggest is to get into a routine with when you place your bets.

System Rules / Pre-Qualifying Bets

As simple as the system is, there are rules that qualify your daily selection. Each bet must abide by these following rules to qualify as a bet worthy of investing in.

RULE 1: Let Form Settle

For the first 25 games of a season watch the form, don’t bet on it. It really is important to let the form of teams settle at the beginning of a season. This is when teams, new recruits, new game plans etc are all finding their feet in the new season.

I suggest you use the system in paper form only. Keep a record of the bets you would’ve made under the system.

This system has proven over the last 4 years that the longer the season goes, the higher the strike rate. So there is no rush to get in early in the season.

IMPORTANT: no real money betting until each team has played 25 games.

RULE 2: One bet per day

It is important to keep to one bet per day. Having multiple series going at once will reduce your overall Strike Rate and ROI.


The only exception to this rule is if there is a tie when assessing your bet for the day. In this instance both the Money Line Odds and Runline Odds need to be identical. If they are identical, you can place two bets for that day (this is only advisable for people with a few years experience – I personally avoided the double bet for the first 3 years)

Rules That MUST Be Followed to Allow a 2nd Bet

  • Both Must Be HOME Teams (if one is an away team – ONLY BET ON THE HOME TEAM)
  • No Injuries (If there are injuries, only bet on the team with the least injuries / changes to full strength team)

Revised Betting Once a Double Bet is Placed

  • If both bets win: Start a new ‘A bet’
  • If one bet wins & one bet loses: Go to a ‘B bet’. Because you place the win before the loss in your reporting.
  • If both bets lose: Go to a ‘C bet’

As you can see, if both bets lose you forfeit your ‘B bet’ and go straight to your ‘C bet’ which is not ideal.

RULE 3: “Once Bitten Twice Shy”

It’s an old saying “Once Bitten, Twice Shy”. This saying is very applicable to this system.

If you place a bet on Tampa Bay Rays to beat Cleveland, and they LOSE!

Do not place another bet on Tempa Bay Rays to beat Cleveland in the same Home and Away series (usually 2-4 games in a row). Instead place your bet on the next favorite – given it follows all other rules.

You can only place a bet on Tempa Bay Rays to beat Cleveland to next time around – if they are the best bet of the day again.

RULE 4: Don’t Bet For The Sake of Betting

3 Games Or Less

If there are only 3 games to bet on, only place a bet if the Bookies Biggest Favorite at Money Line is -200 or greater. If it is, bet as normal. If not, don’t place a bet for that day.


You need value in your bets. DO NOT place a bet if the Runline Odds are (-170) or worse (i.e. -180 etc). When this happens, pick the next best favorite – assuming all other RULES are followed.

RULE 5: Don’t Bet In Play-Offs

The Play-Offs are a totally different ball game. I once upon a time used to bet during the play-offs but unfortunately the returns just weren’t there. Some pitchers seem to grow and extra arm, some batters start seeing the ball like a watermelon and upsets happen. The play-offs are simply too unpredictable to waste money on.

We want to bet when it’s the most predictable. When form lines are true. This does not include the play-offs.

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